Are We in for Another Wild Atlantic Hurricane Season? (Update)

By Paul Rusnak|Updated: August 05, 2021

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is off and running. The fifth named storm of the campaign (Elsa) made landfall in Florida on July 7 and continued on to spread wind and rain across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Photo courtesy of NOAA

Along with all the other unprecedented chaos experienced during 2020, the Atlantic hurricane season obliged with a record-setting campaign that featured 30 named storms, 13 of which turned into a hurricane. And six of those were of the major variety. So, how are we doing in 2021 so far? The season is already doling out its share of tropical punch. With that, Climatologist Phil Klotzbach and his Tropical Meteorology Project team at Colorado State University (CSU) have been keeping a close watch of the latest conditions and applying observations to their extended range forecast.

Back in April, the CSU researchers initially predicted another above-average Atlantic hurricane season with 17 named storms, eight of those to become hurricanes, and four to reach major hurricane strength. Their revised forecast in July increased to 20 named storms, nine to become hurricanes, and four of which to be major categories (3-5). The latest forecast update for August includes a slight dip in numbers (18 named storms; 8 hurricanes, four of which could be major).

According to Klotzbach, even with the slight decrease, the 2021 season is still looking to produce above normal tropical activity. A portion of his latest report reads as follows: “Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are now warmer than normal, while vertical wind shear anomalies averaged over the past 30 days over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are slightly weaker than normal. Current cool neutral ENSO conditions are likely to persist (and perhaps even transition to weak La Niña conditions) by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. We continue to anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean.”

On a related note, NOAA updated its 2021 Atlantic hurricane season forecast with more robust numbers compared to its initial outlook back in May.