Report: Value of Fresh Produce Imports From Mexico To Exceed $53 Billion by 2030
Fresh produce imports from Mexico, which are a major source of economic activity in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas and throughout the U.S., are expected to grow substantially in coming years, according to a recent report from the Center for North American Studies (CNAS) at Texas A&M University.
Luis Ribera, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service economist, was one of the report’s authors.
Ribera says based on conservative assumptions, U.S. fresh produce imports from Mexico will increase by approximately 29.2% over 2022 levels. Using economic multipliers for each sector of the U.S. economy, these fresh produce imports from Mexico will increase business activity and provide a total economic impact of more than $53 billion by 2030.
“Produce imports have a competitive as well as a synergistic relationship with domestic production as Texas and U.S. cannot supply year-round fresh produce for consumption due to seasonality,” he says. “We produce, consume and export fresh produce in our production window and import the rest.”
More than 98% percent of produce imports from Mexico enter the U.S. by way of land ports between Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California.
In an effort to quantify how much the U.S. produce imports from Mexico are expected to grow by 2030, the report’s authors used a conservative linear trend forecasting approach based on trends present from 2007-2022.
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“This gave us a baseline for growth in imports from Mexico, assuming the future will be reflective of the past,” Ribera says. “The estimate also assumes that the mix of imports will remain relatively stable over the time period.”
Imports of produce from Mexico to the U.S. during 2022 totaled an estimated $18.7 billion, which included the importation of fresh, frozen and processed fruits, vegetables, and nuts.
“When looking at only fresh fruits and vegetables, which is nearly 89% of the total, those imports alone totaled $16.6 billion,” Ribera adds.
For more, continue reading at AgriLifeToday.tamu.edu.
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