Powerful Predictions for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season [Update]
Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Helene as seen from high above as it makes landfall in Florida’s Big Bend area on Sept. 26, 2024. Helene was the first major landfalling storm in the U.S. for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Just two weeks later, major Hurricane Milton came calling.
Image courtesy of NOAA
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season is off and running. So far, all the extended forecasts calling for an “extremely active” season look to be on target. This especially after Hurricane Beryl set records as the earliest Category 5 in the Atlantic. The major storm rampaged through the Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula, and made its final landfall at Southeast Texas. Hurricane Debby kicked off August by making landfall in Florida’s Big Bend. Hurricane Helene followed up in late September as another major strike for Florida’s Big Bend. And just two weeks after that, Hurricane Milton left behind major damage in the Sunshine State.
Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Weather and Climate Research team led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach last revised its 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast in August. The updated outlook, which is the last of the season, holds true to its initial well-above-average outlook.
According to Klotzbach and crew, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will produce 23 named storms; 12 of which will be hurricanes; and 6 of those developing into major hurricanes. All of these figures represent well above-normal totals and include the storms already accounted for up to this point: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby.
A major factor for all in the forecasted uptick in storm activity is the expected shift from El Niño (ENSO) climate pattern back to La Niña in time for peak season (August to October). Characteristics of El Niño normally quash tropical activity in the Atlantic basin with its elevated wind shear and cooler waters. La Niña, on the other hand, is known to produce conditions much more conducive for storm development and intensification.
The tropics are definitely ramping up. Along with his final forecast update, Klotzbach is betting on the next few weeks to get really interesting.
CSU has issued its first two-week forecast for the 2024 Atlantic #hurricane season and gives highest odds for above-normal activity (85%). Near-normal (14%) and below-normal (1%) given lower chances of occurring:https://t.co/QJunsJZmi3 pic.twitter.com/KqnILUCKiA
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) August 6, 2024
NOAA officially released its 2024 Atlantic hurricane season outlook in May. The government agency is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms; 8 to 13 hurricanes; and 4 to 7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). These “above-normal” predictions follow suit of other outlooks released earlier.
Earlier this spring, AccuWeather released its long-range forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Its outlook, too, is predicting a very active storm season. In what its experts say could be a “potentially explosive” Atlantic hurricane season, AccuWeather’s official forecast calls for 20 to 25 named storms; 8 to 12 of those developing into hurricanes; and 4 to 7 of those reaching major status.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva is going all in on the forecast. “There is a 10% to 15% chance of 30 or more named storms this year. Surpassing 30 would break the record set in 2020,” he says.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, despite enduring a strong El Niño phase, still finished as fourth most active season since recordkeeping. Major Hurricane Idalia was the standout in the storm lineup, re-emphasizing the time-old saying, “All it takes is one.”
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