USApple 2024 Forecast — 260 Million Total Bushels, Down 10%, with ‘Excellent’ Quality
August 16, 2024 
Chris Gerlach, Vice President of Insights and Analytics with USApple, presents the organization’s 2024-2025 apple forecast Aug. 16 at its annual Outlook conference in Chicago.
Following record-breaking production last year, apple growers expect another high-performing year, the U.S. Apple Association (USApple) reported Friday at its 129th annual Outlook Conference in Chicago.
According to USApple’s analysis, total U.S. apple production for the 2024-2025 crop year will be 259,517,252 bushels. This represents a 10.1% decrease compared to last year’s final production figure.
“Growers from across the U.S. are reporting the crop quality is excellent,” Gerlach said.
Broken down by state, the final USApple 2024-2025 production forecast is:
1. Washington (155,000,000, down 14.5%)
2. New York (31,000,000, up 4.6%)
3. Michigan (30,500,000, down 4.4%)
4. Pennsylvania (11,500,000, down 12.7%)
5. California (5,476,190, down 4.2%)
6. Virginia (4,750,000, down 5.5%)
7.Oregon (3,571,429, down 5.4%)
“Other States” (17,719,632, down 3.7%)
“Despite various challenges, the resilience and dedication of our growers have led to another promising year for apple production,” Gerlach said. “The data we’ve gathered not only highlights the strength of our industry but also underscores the importance of innovation and adaptability in ensuring a bountiful harvest.”
USApple’s figures are more comprehensive than USDA data, which only look at the top seven apple-producing states. USApple analyzes the production from states outside of the top seven and adds that back into USDA’s figure. It also incorporates feedback from growers based on what they’re seeing in the field every day.
USApple’s Industry Outlook 2024 provides up-to-date data and analysis on U.S. and global apple production, utilization, and trade. Authored by USApple Vice President of Insights and Analytics Chris Gerlach, the report takes an in-depth look at the trends and forces — from political headwinds to weather events — that shape the U.S. apple industry.
The Outlook Report is based on recently released USDA estimates. Following the presentation of those numbers, USApple members met in-person Thursday to discuss current growing conditions to formulate a more up-to-date production estimate. The final USApple 2024-25 crop year forecast is an adjustment of the USDA numbers based on those conversations.
Varietal Mix
At the varietal level, ‘Gala’ is expected to retain the top spot with more than 48 million bushels produced, accounting for around 17% of the U.S. apple market. After ‘Gala’, rounding out the top five are ‘Red Delicious’ (12.3%), ‘Granny Smith’ (10%), ‘Honeycrisp’ (9.8%) and ‘Fuji’ (9.4%).
In general, the varieties on the rise include ‘Honeycrisp’, ‘Pink Lady’/’Cripps Pink’, and ‘Cosmic Crisp’. ‘Fuji,’ ‘Rome’, and “other” varieties have remained relatively consistent compared to 2019-20 production volumes. Varieties on the decline include ‘Gala’ and ‘Red Delicious’.
“We still see strong ‘Honeycrisp’ production, but it’s tempered this year,” Gerlach said. “With volumes aligning more closely with ‘Gala’ and ‘Red Delicious’, we may see production levels stabilize rather than increase dramatically in the future.”
Trade
According to USDA trade data, fresh apple exports totaled 46.4 million bushels in the 2023-2024 (July to June). This is around 14 million bushels higher than 2022-23 export levels — an “astonishing” 44% year-over-year increase, according to USApple.
During the same period, fresh apple imports dropped by around one million bushels, a 15% decline. The joint effects of increasing exports and decreasing imports caused the already net positive fresh apple trade balance to grow to more than 42 million bushels.
The surge in fresh apple exports is largely attributed to the abundant domestic supply, competitive pricing abroad, and favorable positive trade policies.
“Thanks to the removal of previously imposed tariffs on our apples, exports to India are up nearly 4,000% year over year. We are optimistic that this critical market will continue to grow in volume and value,” Gerlach said.
Global Production
According to United Nations data, worldwide apple production surpassed 5 billion bushels for the first time in 2022 (the latest available datapoint). In 2022 China alone was responsible for producing 2.5 billion bushels, around half of the world’s total supply. In 2021 Turkey overtook the U.S. to become the world’s second largest apple producer and maintained that spot in 2022, even widening the gap between us (with 253 million bushels, 5% of world production). The U.S., in the third spot, was credited with 232 million bushels and 4.6% of world production. Rounding out the top five were Poland (4.4%) and India (2.7%).
Newton
Launched in 2022, USApple’s Newton Database & Dashboard is a one-stop-shop for apple-related statistics. Newton consolidates data from USApple and multiple USDA sources in to one place giving users up-to-date information on apple production, utilization, trade, prices, storages, movement, economic impacts and more. This unique USApple member benefit gives users the ability to view preset reports or create custom queries for download.
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