2024 Almond Crop Forecast Up 13% Over Last Year
July 12, 2024 The 2024 California almond production forecast is 2.80 billion meat pounds,13% higher than last year’s crop of 2.47 billion meat pounds, largely due to great weather – especially for the bees.
The 2024 California Almond Objective Measurement Report, published by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, is based on 1.38 million bearing acres. Because of the excellent conditions during bloom, growers know this year’s crop is likely going to be huge.
Of more interest to the industry is that the recent objective forecast is actually down 7% from May’s subjective forecast.
“The objective measurement is in line with what the industry expected and a drop from the subjective estimate. It reflects both a good bloom and hard work by California almond growers during trying times,” says Clarice Turner, President and CEO of the Almond Board of California.
For obvious reasons, the objective estimate is generally far more accurate, though far from perfect. The 2023 harvest yielded 2.47 billion pounds, 5% below the 2023 objective estimate, reflecting the difficulty of precisely forecasting crop size given the current fluctuations in weather and economic factors.
Production for the dominant ‘Nonpareil’ variety is forecast at 1.10 billion meat pounds, 17% above last year’s deliveries of 941 million meat pounds. The ‘Nonpareil variety’ represents 39% of California’s total almond production.
The 2024 almond crop experienced mostly favorable weather during bloom, which began the second week of February and finished by the middle of March. Bee hours were reported to be significantly higher than last year. The number of hours the bees can fly often foretells the size of the crop.
Wet and warm weather in April increased pest and disease pressure, but dry conditions and mild temperatures in May helped the developing crop. Multiple heat waves across the state during June and July required growers to increase irrigation on their orchards. The almond harvest is expected to be on schedule.
The average nut set per tree is 4,072, an increase of 3% compared to 2023. The ‘Nonpareil’ average nut set of 4,137 is also 3% higher than last year. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.61 grams, down 4% from the 2023 average weight. The ‘Nonpareil’ average kernel weight was 1.64 grams, down 3% from the 2023 average weight. A total of 98.9% of all nuts sized were sound.
The recent estimate comes when the carryout is projected to drop to levels not seen in years as almond shipments set a record of 10 months straight of at least 212 million pounds shipped. Turner said it was the first time shipped even 200 million pounds 10 months in a row in the same crop year.
“For perspective, demand has been strong, consistent and continues to grow, which has reduced the carryout to what may be the smallest in years,” Turner says, noting the Almond Board expects the almond supply to be similar to what was available in the recent past.
“The actual supply of California almonds available for the market is the combination of crop size and carryout from the previous year,” she says. “We expect only minor changes, if any, to the supply for market this next crop year because the forecasted increase in crop size will mostly be offset by the smaller carryout. Clearly, global demand is strong and consistent. We will continue to work hard to meet growing demand.”
Subscribe Today For
