Drought in California Catching up to Almond Growers
September 20, 2022 Getting top yields is tough enough when you’ve got plenty of water, but California growers — who produce nearly all the nation’s almonds — have wrestled with declining amounts in recent years. Combine that with spring frost, supply chain problems, and rising input prices, and it adds up to what’s expected to be the lowest per-acre yields in more than a decade.
The 2022 California Almond Objective Measurement Report by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimates the crop harvested in 2022 will come in at 2.6 billion meat pounds, 11% below last year’s 2.9 billion pounds. The yield is expected to be 1,900 pounds per acre, the first time it has dipped below 1 ton per acre since 2009’s 1,880 pounds per acre. The forecast for the average nut set per tree is 4,082, down 12% from 2021.
The average lower yield is largely an indication of many growers’ declining access to water, says Almond Board President and CEO Richard Waycott, although another factor is prices for all petroleum-based grower inputs, from fertilizers to pesticides, have shot up in the past year.
“Essentially that [yield] just reflects the fact that it’s the third year of drought,” he says, “and our crop inputs increased so radically in cost, there was a lot of pressure on growers in terms of what they can afford to cultivate their crops.”
Complicating matters were some hard frost events in Northern California in the spring. Waycott says though no hard numbers are yet available (as of press time), industry observers estimate that as much as 40% of the Sacramento Valley crop was affected.
SHIPS ARE SAILING
There was some good news in the NASS report on recent crop shipments, however. Growers have watched their stores of almonds grow, as many freighters during the pandemic were transporting higher-cost goods. But almond exports hit record highs in both May and June, and total almond shipments in May also hit a high point.
“Despite the shipping and logistical logjams, recent shipment numbers have set monthly records, which demonstrates the demand for California almonds continues to increase in the U.S. and around the world,” Waycott says. “Almond growers are putting what resources they can afford this year into producing their crop, and their efforts show. Although there was a drop from last year, the forecast reflects the efforts of growers to meet global demand and ensure a steady supply of high-quality California almonds.”
But despite the recent record shipments, and the smaller crop this year, the many months of inactive ports caused a big backup of inventory for growers, and Waycott says growers are still going to face some lower prices in the immediate future.
“A smaller crop helps in theory with pricing, but current conditions are such that growers are in a buyers’ market,” he says. “It’s more than a shipping situation.”
Waycott notes growers have produced the largest crops in history of late. The 2020 almond crop was the biggest ever, 1.4 million metric tons. That’s a combination of the fact there are now an estimated 1.37 million acres of almonds, per-acre tree count is up to 122.5 on average, and growers’ per-acre yields have largely gone steadily up through the years through fine-tuning inputs and irrigation, both of which largely had to be cut recently.
FUTURE GROWTH
The future of the almond industry is inextricably tied to the state’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), which was passed in 2014, Waycott says. The state required the state’s Groundwater Management Areas (GMAs) to submit sustainability plans this year. However, several GMAs have found their respective regions have sustainable yields that are too low to provide adequate amounts for farming — largely because they simply don’t have enough access to water.
The key question is how much land will have to be fallowed. Waycott notes that of the 17.2 million arable acres in California, original predictions called for 500,000 to be fallowed, but many believe that number will approach 1 million.
“Longer term, California ag is all about the SGMA story — how much land will be fallowed when,” he says. “What will be grown on that [remaining] acreage? It remains to be seen what crops will be favored.”
Waycott is confident because the almond industry has flourished in recent decades, although there will certainly be a slower growth rate from now until the end of this decade.
“But as long as almonds continue to be a crop of choice, you’ll continue to see them planted wherever water is available.”
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