Is the Nut Market Cracking Under Pressure of Pricing?

By Richard Jones|January 29, 2020

Growth in the Western tree nut market shows little signs of abating. Even with potentially more stringent groundwater regulations in California, trade and tariff concerns, and production costs that press grower profitability, optimism for the potential of almond, walnut, and pistachio crops continue to drive new plantings.

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In fact, according to nut growers responding to American Fruit Grower’s 2019 State of the Industry Survey, more than 4 in 10 plan to increase production in 2020. Only 8% expect to cut back in the coming season.

So, what will that mean for prices? We heard growers expressing uncertainty in last year’s survey. As for this year, opinions are split. For a little more than half of survey respondents, there is some concern that we’ll begin to see a negative impact. But a nearly equal percentage of growers say they aren’t too worried.

“Considering acreage planted and continuing to be planted, fearful of prices being suppressed to the point where profit will be very difficult with input costs and land prices what they are,” says one almond grower.

“Hopefully, Industry can market all the crop, but worry how the tariffs will impact the future pricing,” says another.

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“Walnut prices have softened but starting to come back. Let’s hope we are on the upswing and not the roller coaster,” says one almond and walnut grower.

Another respondent suggests that the solution to nut prices is just as much in the hands of growers as it is determined by outside forces.

“There will always be a market for nut products, even if nut sales drop. Innovation in products will be how to diversify and stabilize your prices,” he says.

The weather seems to have held yields and prices in check in 2019.

“Poor bloom weather killed us,” says one grower.

And he wasn’t alone. While 41% of growers report their production up for the season, the bulk of those growers were up less than 5%. On the other hand, nearly a quarter of growers responding say they had production decreases in excess of 10% for the year.

No one knows what the weather will do, of course. And there’s enough uncertainty about market conditions that might have growers in other crops looking for alternatives, but even so, planting continues. One almond and walnut grower shares a sentiment that seems to be shared by a lot of people out West:

“I think that nuts should have a good market for the foreseeable future,” he says.

Richard Jones is a former Corporate Content Director for Meister Media Worldwide. For more than two decades he served as an editor for brands in Meister's U.S. Horticulture Group, including American Vegetable Grower^®, American Fruit Grower^®, Western Fruit Grower^®, Florida Grower^®, and Greenhouse Grower^® magazines. See all author stories here.