Climate Change Might Afford New Opportunities for Southeast Veggie Growers
Effects of climate change are influencing cropping systems and where certain crops can be successfully grown. Researchers in the University of Georgia’s College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences (CAES) recently published a study in the journal Sustainability examining the feasibility of expanding fresh vegetable production in Georgia as increased temperatures and more frequent and extreme droughts threaten producers in the western U.S.
“The Southeast U.S. is a prime candidate for expanding vegetable production in response to reduced yields in the West,” says Jeff Mullen, Associate Professor in the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
Preparing for Agricultural Shifts
In anticipation of probable climate variability, Mullen, lead investigator on the project, says the research team explored the consequences of water withdrawals and water quality, as well as risks to different ecological categories, of a shift from row crop to vegetable production in the Southeast U.S.
To compare expected water use on row crops with vegetable crops, researchers used data collected through UGA Cooperative Extension farmer surveys in which farmers self-reported irrigation volume applied to vegetable crops between 1992 and 2008. They also compared USDA irrigation application rates on vegetable fields from farm surveys between 2003 and 2018.
With those data, the research team was able to demonstrate the additional expected irrigation water withdrawals needed for vegetable crops compared to row crops. Depending on the weather, an acre of vegetables requires between 70% and 100% more water than corn and between 200% and 300% more water than cotton and peanut.
“When you think about how the effects of climate change are likely to be distributed across U.S. and around the world, it looks like California is in for a lot of hurt. On top of the tenuous nature of water they import from the Colorado River, they’re heavily reliant on snow melt from the mountains. When you start getting warmer winters then you get less snowpack,” Mullen says.
While good years are possible — 2023 and 2024 both recorded above-average snowpack after more than a decade of unusually dry years — recharging some of the state’s aquifers, Mullen says such boon years would be the exception rather than the rule.
“These droughts are more likely to be the status quo, so the sustainability of continuing to grow these water-intensive vegetable crops in that area is going to be challenged in a low-water environment,” he adds.
If production levels decline in California and vegetable prices begin to rise elsewhere, producers in the Southeast may become interested in expanding into vegetable production.
“It’s a lot of work to change the way you farm, so there is a little bit of inertia in the cropping system that we have, but once prices start pushing up enough, then people get more and more interested,” Mullen explains. “Over the last 20 years, there hasn’t been a lot of increase in vegetable production in Georgia, but that could change if vegetable prices rise faster than row crop prices.”
For more, continue reading at newswire.caes.uga.edu.
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