Experts Expect Below-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season
April 10, 2014 According to Colorado State University climatologists Phil Klotzbach and William Gray, the 2014 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have below-average activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology.
Extended Range Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast For 2014
- Named Storms: 9
- Hurricanes: 3
- Major Hurricanes (Categories 3 to 5): 1
Reasons for the reduced numbers: Klotzbach and Gray note that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall. In addition, the tropical Atlantic has cooled over the past few months.
The duo’s extended range outlook also anticipates a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean.
Probabilities For At Least One Major Hurricane (Categories 3 to 5) To Make Landfall On Each Of The Following Coastal Areas
- Entire U.S. coastline: 35% (average for last century is 52%)
- U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida: 20% (average for last century is 31%)
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, TX: 19% (average for last century is 30%)
- Caribbean: 28% (average for last century is 42%)
Similarly, The Weather Channel recently released its own 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast. While the numbers vary from Colorado State’s prediction, the expectation of a less active campaign coincides.
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