Forecasters Predict Historically Weak Atlantic Hurricane Season
April 9, 2015 According to Colorado State University climatologists Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phil Klotzbach, the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20th century.
In their extended-range outlook, the duo notes the likelihood of a moderate to strong El Niño will develop this summer and fall. The climate pattern, which is characterized by a sustained warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, is known to suppress tropical storm development in the Atlantic.
Additionally, the report states that the tropical and subtropical Atlantic water temperatures are quite cool at present.
2015 Extended Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast
- Named Storms: 7
- Hurricanes: 3
- Major Hurricanes (Categories 3-5): 1
Along with a below-average hurricane activity, Gray and Klotzbach also anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. coastline.
Probabilities For At Least One Major Hurricane Landfall On Each Of The Following Coastal Areas
- Entire U.S. coastline – 28% (average for last century is 52%)
- U.S. East Coast including Florida Peninsula – 15% (average for last century is 31%)
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, TX – 15% (average for last century is 30%)
Gray and Klotzbach’s forecast is scheduled to be updated and revised in early June.
Click here to view the entire forecast.
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